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「只有透過同盟制度，塞拉耶佛危機(1914年)才會演變成一場世界大戰。」試參考1900-14年間的史實，評論此說能否成立。
立場及架構 第一次世界大戰是同盟國與協約國兩大陣營的戰爭，對於塞拉耶佛危機演變成一場全面性的戰爭而言，同盟制度的重要性極大。然而，同盟制度並非是使戰爭擴大化的唯一因素，其他因素，包括民族因素、軍事因素、殖民地因素也是重要的成因。因此，題目所言不能成立。
主旨句 首先，塞拉耶佛危機因德奧同盟而產生連鎖反應，使戰爭擴大。 // 主項重要性德國與奧匈早於1879年已締結德奧同盟，並且又於1882年聯同意大利成立了三國同盟，關係緊密。加上，由於在1905年及1911年德、法的兩次摩洛哥危機中，只有奧匈此一盟友支持德國，意大利已經開始逐步對三國同盟出現離心，使奧匈與德國的關係變得唇齒相依。正因如此，當1914年塞拉耶佛危機出現時，德國基於同盟的緣故而堅定地支持奧匈，更不惜開出「空白支票」予奧匈，壯大了奧匈開戰的決心，向塞爾維亞開出苛刻的最後通牒。同時，德國也因支持奧匈而與俄、塞一方對立，最終更因同盟制度而使德國捲入奧塞的戰爭。因此，奧匈同盟有助令塞拉耶佛危機升級為奧塞的戰爭，更進一步使德國牽涉在內。 // 小結可見，塞拉耶佛危機因德奧同盟而使戰爭出現及擴大化。
其次，塞拉耶佛危機因三國協約的關係而使戰爭進一步擴大。三國協約是由法、俄、英三國建立，其中，法國不但於1893年與俄國建立法俄同盟，而英國分別於1904年及1907年與法國和俄國簽訂《英法協約》及《英俄協約》，建立是盟友的關係。至1914年塞拉耶佛危機時，雖然塞拉耶佛危機的衝突雙方是奧匈及塞爾維亞，但基於俄國與塞爾維亞關係緊密，而俄國支持塞爾維亞的舉動就使三國協約介入戰爭。當時的法國總統及總理訪問俄國，表示支持俄國對抗德、奧，結果使俄國的開戰信心大增，法國也同盟制度而捲入戰爭。及後，英國也恐懼一旦同盟國取得勝利，將使協約國徹底失勢，因此在德國實行施里芬計劃，經過比利時，英國隨即向德國發出最後通牒，最終使英國也無可避免地捲入戰爭。而且，基於英國早於1902年與日本締結成英日同盟，因此使日本也向德國在中國的軍隊宣戰，進一步導致戰爭擴大化。可見，基於同盟的原因，法、英、日等國也不能置身事外，使更多國家參與在內。
雖然同盟制度是使塞拉耶佛危機演變成世界大戰的重要因素，然而，其並非唯一的原因。其他因素，包括民族因素、軍事因素、殖民地因素等也驅使多國加入戰爭。
主旨句 其一，民族因素也使衝突進一步擴大至多國的戰爭。 // 他項重要性二十世紀初，民族主義盛行，包括德國泛日耳曼主義、俄國泛斯拉夫主義、法國復仇主義等。各個民族為彰顯民族的強大而不斷進行擴張，以致衝突常起。更甚，至塞拉耶佛危機時，民族主義更將衝突擴大化，例如在德、奧方面，雖然奧匈是多民族國家，但日耳曼人就是國內人數最多的民族，而且奧匈的母語也是德語。因此，相近的民族背景也是德國開出「空白支票」予奧匈的原因之一。此外，在俄、塞方面，俄國與塞爾維亞同屬於斯拉夫民族，俄國更被視為是「斯拉夫民族的兄長」，正因如此，俄國在塞拉耶佛危機中不惜第一個國家總動員以支持塞，使俄國難以避免地捲入戰。此外，巴爾幹小國的民族主義也使戰爭擴大，因巴爾幹小國希望藉加入戰爭以獲取更加土地，例如保加利亞為了取回在第二次巴爾幹戰爭(1913年)時損失的領土而加入同盟國一方，最終使戰爭在巴爾幹全面展開。 // 小結可見，民族因素也是危機升級為大戰的要因。
其二，軍事因素也使塞拉耶佛危機演變成世界大戰。由於二十世紀初的軍備競賽氣氛濃厚，各國積極擴軍，並制定作戰計劃以針對敵國。結果，當塞耶佛危機發生後，膨漲的軍事實力便使各國更主張使用武力解決問題，例如俄國第一個國家總動員以支持塞爾維亞；德國實行施里芬計劃以攻打法國，終使塞拉耶佛危機升級為戰爭。加上，英國早與法國於1912年簽訂《英法海軍協定》，英國與法國分別維持英倫海峽及地中海的和平穩定，而德國穿過比利時的行動就使英國認為其會在比利時取得針對英國的海軍基地，最終使英國介入戰爭，戰爭愈演愈烈。後來，美國的加入更加是因為德國於戰時實施「無限制潛艇戰」，擊沈了多首美國的非軍用船隻，結果導致美國參戰，戰爭進一步擴大化。可見，軍事因素使參戰國增加，升級為世界大戰。
其三，殖民地因素也使塞拉耶佛危機擴大至世界性的大戰。塞拉耶佛危機原本只是歐洲的戰爭，但由於殖民地因素而使全球多國均捲入。其中，由於英國控制了多個殖民地國家，因此一旦英國參戰，其殖民地國家也大多跟隨參戰，例如澳洲就於英國參戰後出兵，主要參與對土耳其的戰爭。此外，日本對於德國在中國山東的勢力範圍虎視眈眈，故在歐洲戰線的爆發後，日本以英日同盟之名向德國宣戰，並攻佔及獲取了原屬德國在中國的勢力範圍，反映了日本的參戰是基於殖民地利益。再者，作為列強勢力範圍的中國也希望透過戰爭一方面驅除德國的勢力出中國，並且向協約國爭取更多的權益，因此加入協約國陣營，對德國宣戰，於戰時派送達14萬勞工到歐洲進行戰地的後勤工作，包括挖掘壕溝、修築橋梁及鐵路等，使戰爭的參與國再度增加。可見，塞拉耶佛危機因殖民地因素而進一步擴至世界各地。
總括而言，雖然同盟制度的連鎖反應雖然對於戰爭擴大化極具意義，但卻並非是唯一的原因。第一次世界大戰之所以牽連甚廣，民族因素、軍事因素及殖民地因素也不能夠被忽視，故題目所言不能成立。
‘Only through alliance system would the Sarajevo Incident (1914) develop into a world war.’ Comment on the validity of this statement with reference to the period 1900-14.
The First World War was a war between the Central Powers and the Allies. The alliance system took an important role in developing the Sarajevo Incident into a full-scale war. However, the alliance system was not the only factor that enlarged its scale. Other factors such as the national factor, the military factor and the colonial factor were major causes as well. Thus, this statement is invalid.
Firstly, the Dual Alliance caused chain reaction in the Sarajevo Incident and broadened the war scale. Germany and Austria-Hungary formed the Dual Alliance德奧同盟(1879). Later, they formed the Triple Alliance三國同盟 with Italy (1882). However, only Austria-Hungary supported Germany in the two Moroccan Crises摩洛哥危機(1905; 1911). Relations between Italy and Germany turned distant. Austria-Hungary became the only close ally of Germany. Thus, in the Sarajevo Incident塞拉耶佛危機, Germany offered Austria-Hungary a “blank cheque空白支票” and gave it unwavering support because of the alliance system. It strengthened Austria-Hungary to issue harsh ultimatum最後通牒 to Serbia. Meanwhile, Germany created an opposing relationship with Russia and Serbia because it supported Austria-Hungary. Due to the alliance system, Germany drew into the Austria-Serbian war in the end. Thus, the Dual Alliance drew Germany into conflicts and developed the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale world war. It showed that the Dual Alliance developed the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale world war.
Secondly, the Triple Entente developed the Sarajevo Incident into a large scale world war. The Triple Entente was formed by France, Russia and Britain. France formed Franco-Russian Alliance法俄同盟(1893) with Russia. Britain signed the Entente Cordiale英法協約(1904) and Anglo-Russian Entente英俄協約(1907) with France and Russia respectively. They became allies. Despite the fact that the Sarajevo Incident塞拉耶佛危機 was a conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, Russia supported Serbia owing to their close relationship. At that time, the president and prime minister of France visited Russia, supporting Russia to confront Germany and Austria-Hungary. It boosted Russian confidence and the Triple Entente thus interfered in the war. Meanwhile, France drew into war because of the alliance system. Later, Britain was afraid that if the Central Powers got victory, the Allies would be collapsed. Thus, when Germany was imposing the Schlieffen Plan施里芬計劃, Britain declared ultimatum to Germany. Britain therefore drew into the war too. Furthermore, on account of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance英日同盟(1902), Japan inevitably declared war on German army in China, thus broadening the war scale. It showed that more and more countries such as France, Britain, Japan and the like were forced to join the war owing to the alliance system.
The alliance system took an important role in developing the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale world war. However, the alliance system was not the only factor. Other factors such as national factor, military factor and colonial factor were major causes as well.
Firstly, national factor developed the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale war. In the early 20th century, nationalism was prevalent. They were Pan-Germanism泛日耳曼主義 of Germany, Pan-Slavism泛斯拉夫主義 of Russia, French Revanchism復仇主義 etc. Every country expanded their territories actively so as to show their national strength, thus resulting in conflicts. Worse still, nationalism broadened the scale of the Sarajevo Incident. For instance, although Austria-Hungary was a multinational country, the majority was Germanic. Their mother tongue was German as well. Thus, similar national background was one of the reasons why Germany offered a “blank cheque空白支票” to Austria-Hungary. Moreover, both Russia and Serbia were Slavs. Russia was even called the “Big Brother of Slavs斯拉夫民族的兄長”. Hence, Russia announced the General Mobilization總動員 in order to support Serbia in Sarajevo Incident. Russia drew into war inevitably. Furthermore, Balkan national independent movement also expanded the war scale since they hoped to gain more territories through wars. For example, Bulgaria joined the Central Powers so as to get back the losing territories during the Second Balkan War第二次巴爾幹戰爭(1913). It led to war in Balkans. It showed that national factor was a major cause to develop the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale war.
Secondly, military factor developed the Sarajevo Incident into a large-scale war. There was a fierce armaments race in the early 20th century. Every country actively expanded its army and formulated military plans in order to counter enemy countries. As a result, countries proposed to use armed force to settle conflict in the Sarajevo Incident because of the expanding military powers. For instance, Russia declared the General Mobilization總動員 to support Serbia while Germany imposed Schlieffen Plan施里芬計劃 to attack France, thus developing the Sarajevo Incident into a war. Besides, Britain and France signed the Anglo-French Naval Agreement英法海軍協定(1912), which stated Britain would defend the English Channel while France would defend the Mediterranean Sea. When Germany passed through Belgium, Britain feared that Germany would set up a naval base on Belgium, thus posing a threat to Britain. Britain involved in war inevitably. Later, Germany started the unrestricted submarine warfare無限制潛艇戰, attacking many non-military ships of the US. This caused the US to declare war on Germany which broadened the war scale. It showed that military factor led to an increase in participating countries. The Sarajevo Incident was thus developed into a large-scale war.
Thirdly, colonial factor developed the Sarajevo Incident into a world war. The Sarajevo Incident was originally a European war. However, more and more countries joined because of colonial factor. Since Britain ruled numerous colonies, these colonies would join war when Britain joined war. For instance, Australia澳洲 involved in war in Turkey after Britain had joined war. Moreover, Japan was eager for Shandong山東 in China, thus declaring war on Germany according to Anglo-Japanese Alliance英日同盟 in order to obtain German sphere of influence in China. It reflected that the joining of Japan was based on colonial interest. Furthermore, China wanted to get rid of German influence in China and fought for more interests by wars. Hence, it joined the Allies and declared war on Germany. During wartime, China sent 140 thousand labor to do logistics, including war trench digging, bridges and railways building etc. It led to the increase in participating countries during the wartime. It showed that colonial factor developed the Sarajevo Incident into a world war.
In conclusion, although the alliance system caused chain reaction which broadened war scale, it was not the only factor. Other factors such as national factor, military factor and colonial factor were major causes as well. Thus, this statement is invalid.
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