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原題目題號：DSE-2017-Essay-04-Version 2
「相比經濟大蕭條而言，巴黎和約是引致第二次世界大戰的更重要因素。」參考1919-39年間歐洲發展的史實，評論此說能否成立。
架構 經濟大蕭條和巴黎和約均是導致第二次世界大戰爆發的關鍵性因素，但相比之下，經濟大蕭條在導致極權主義興起、綏靖政策出現、集體安全體系失效等事上，重要性均明顯大於巴黎和約。 // 立場因此，題目所言不能夠成立。
主旨句 其一，巴黎和約促使極權主義興起，對於二次大戰爆發具有重要性。// 項目A(巴黎和約的重要性) 苛刻的《凡爾賽條約》不但要求德國賠償330億美元，更需要承擔所有戰爭罪責等，使德人對戰勝國產生強烈的仇視情緒。在此情況下，納粹希特拉打著推翻《凡爾賽條約》的旗號而得到人民的廣泛支持，更於1933年上台後逐步推翻《凡爾賽條約》，最終於1939年突襲波蘭，終使二戰於德國的侵略下爆發。加上，由於英、法失信於意大利，未有將阜姆及達爾馬西亞等地給予意大利，只在《聖澤門條約》中給予了提洛爾和伊斯特里亞，結果令意大利極為不滿，大大助長1922年墨索里尼的上台，其後更積極發動侵略，包括於1939年出兵入侵阿爾巴尼亞，成為二次大戰爆發的侵略國之一。
主旨句 然而，經濟大蕭條對於大戰爆發的重要性更大。 // 項目B(經濟大蕭條的重要性) 經濟大蕭條造成的惡劣經濟環境同樣使德國納粹主義崛起。因美國撤回對德國的貸款計劃，導致德國陷入經濟危機，如1932年德國失業人數達600萬人，希特拉藉此提出強勁的經濟政策及反共產思想而獲得廣泛的德人支持，終使其於1933年上台。並且，希特拉於上台後不斷發動侵略以尋求「生存空間」，侵略捷克等國，最終使大戰爆發。同時，意大利於經濟大蕭條後陷入困局，致使其重新侵略，例如1939年入侵阿爾巴尼亞以攫取當地的經濟資源，使侵略於1930年代末頻繁出現，為二戰的爆發鋪路。 // 對比(~20%) 相比之下，就影響力而言，巴黎和約的影響力於1920年代慢慢退卻，例如希特拉在1920年代中隨著德國經濟問題有所改善而逐漸式微，意大利同樣於1926年迫使阿爾巴尼亞成為其保護國後就停止侵略，但隨著經濟大蕭條出現，使德、意面對災難性的經濟影響，結果才導致納粹希特拉上台和法西斯意大利重新侵略，終迎來二次大戰的爆發。因此，經濟大蕭條更為重要。
其二，巴黎和約埋下了英國採取綏靖政策的心理基礎，對二次大戰爆發亦具重要性。由於巴黎和約中對德國制訂了極為嚴苛的安排，例如《凡爾賽條約》中削減軍隊人數至10萬人、損失超過10%的人口和領土；《聖澤門條約》中禁止德、奧合併，結果令往後英國傾向同情德國的遭遇，於1930年代採取綏靖政策回應德國的行動。例如在1935年德國重新實行徵兵制時，英國認為此舉是德國的合理權益，故不但無更加阻止，更與德國簽訂《英德海軍協定》，允許其重新擴建海軍，使德國往後有足夠的軍力發動二次大戰。
然而，經濟大蕭條對於大戰爆發更加重要。經濟大蕭條才是英、法採取綏靖政策的最直接因素。1929年由美國引發的經濟大蕭條導致了英、法陷入嚴重經濟困境，因各國為保護國內工業，紛紛實施貿易保護主義，提高關稅，令全球貿易額急降，英、法等工業國家首當其衝。於1930年代，英、法需要專注解決國內經濟問題，無力以強硬軍力阻止侵略國的擴張，故採取綏靖政策，例如在1938年慕尼黑協定中，英、法將蘇台德區由捷克手上轉交予德國，避免德國對捷克開戰，但卻大大減低了捷克的國防實力，使捷克在1939年輕易被德國所侵佔，為二次大戰的爆發鋪路。相比之下，就綏靖政策的實行上，英、法在1920年代沒有明顯採取綏靖政策，法國更加對德國採取壓迫性政策，例如1923年當德國未能償還賠款時，法國聯同比利時進軍德國魯爾區，故巴黎和約對於綏靖政策的出現存有局限。然而，於經濟大蕭條後，英、法在經濟打擊下無力再維持強硬的政策，故才採取綏靖政策，最終助長德國的擴張，使大戰爆發。因此，經濟大蕭條的重要性更大。
其三，巴黎和約後建立的集體安全體系造成了反效果，也促使了大戰爆發。列強在制定巴黎和約時加入了「和平十四點」的原則，其中一項就是成立一個維和機構。於1920年，國聯應運而生。然而，美國作為巴黎和約的三巨頭之一，卻未有加入國聯，最終令國聯在一成立的時候已經缺乏威信及強大的軍事後援。於1930年代，德、意相繼於1933年及1937年退出國聯。國聯的無能使侵略國清楚知道國際社會沒有有效的方法以阻止其侵略，因而更加肆無忌憚地進行侵略，例如德國於1938年與奧地利合併；意大利於1939年入侵阿爾巴尼亞等，最終導致了二次大戰的爆發。
然而，經濟大蕭條的重要性大於巴黎和約。經濟大蕭條對集體安全體系造成的打擊更大。在國聯方面，由於經濟大蕭條重創了英、法的經濟，令英、法無力再支援國聯的運作，使國聯在維和議題上變得更加弱勢。在裁軍會議方面，經濟大蕭條使法國恐懼經濟差劣的經濟環境會使侵略國進行擴張，故在裁軍議題上變得更加保守，例如於倫敦海軍會議(1930年)時拒絕裁軍，大大削弱了裁軍會議的成效，使大戰在集體安全體系蕩然無存的情況底下爆發。因此，經濟大蕭條使集體安全體系變得軟弱無效，終助長了侵略國的氣焰，導致大戰的爆發。相比之下，就性質而言，巴黎和約提出建立維和機構是希望維持和平，性質是良性，往後集體安全體系失效以致大戰爆發的責任不應歸咎於巴黎和約。相反，經濟大蕭條造成的是惡性後果。在1929年前，維和體系有助維持和平，例如國聯成功調停了1920年代的大多地區性衝突，包括阻止了1923年意大利炮轟科孚島；《羅加諾公約》及《凱格—白里安條約》締造了1920年代的歐洲蜜月期，但至經濟大蕭條的出現卻瓦解了原有的蜜月期，更使集體安全體系逐步崩潰，最終大戰在集體安全體系蕩然無存的情況底下爆發。可見，經濟大蕭條的重要性更大。
總括而言，雖然巴黎和約對於二次大戰的爆發亦具重要性。然而，巴黎和約的負面影響於1920年代已經逐步減退，歐洲更進入了蜜月期，但經濟大蕭條於1929年的出現已經扭轉了原有趨勢，使極權主義興起及侵略、綏靖政策出現、集體安全體系失效，對於大戰爆發的重要性大於巴黎和約。
‘The Paris Peace Settlement (1919-23) was a more important factor than the Great Depression in causing the Second World War.’ Comment on the validity of this statement with reference to Europe’s development in the period 1919-39.
Great Depression and Paris Peace Conference are both important factors leading to the Second World War. However, when comparing both factors, Great Depression is more important than Paris Peace Conference in terms of leading to the rise of totalitarianism, appeasement policy and the failure of the collective security system. As a result, the statement is not valid.
First, Paris Peace Conference led to the rise of totalitarianism, thus it is important to the outbreak of the Second World War. The harshness of Treaty of Versailles《凡爾賽條約》 made Germany to pay US $33 billion remedy and bear all the war guilt戰爭罪責. These made German hatred the victories. Under such circumstances, Hitler gained great support by promoting the abolishment Treaty of Versailles. He started to abolish the treaty after he gained power and had a sudden attack on Poland波蘭 in 1939. These paved the way to the outbreak of the Second World War. Moreover, as Britain and France lied to Italy and did not give Fiume阜姆 and Dalmatia達爾馬西亞 to Italy but only Tyrol提洛爾 and Istria伊斯特里亞 under the Saint German Treaty. This made Italy unsatisfied and facilitated Mussolini’s gain of power in 1922. He then actively invaded other countries such as invading Albania阿爾巴尼亞 in 1939 and became one of the aggressors in the Second World War.
However, the Great Depression is more important for the outbreak of war. The harsh economic environment caused by the Great Depression also raised the rise of German Nazism. Because the United States withdrew to Germany's loan program, leading to Germany into an economic crisis, such as Germany in 1932 the number of unemployed up to 6 million people, Hitler put forward strong economic policy and anti-communist ideology反共產思想 and access to a wide range of German support, and finally to its came to power in 1933. And, after he took office, Hitler continued to launch aggression to seek "living space生存空間", invade the Czech and other countries, and ultimately the outbreak of war. At the same time, Italy fell into a dilemma after the Great Depression, causing it to re-invade, for example, in 1939 to invade Albania阿爾巴尼亞 to seize the local economic resources, so that the aggression in the late 1930s frequently appear, paving the way for the outbreak of World War II. In contrast, regarding influence影響力, the influence of the Parisian peace treaty in the 1920s slowly retreated, for example, Hitler in the 1920s with the German economic problems have improved and gradually decline, Italy also forced in 1926 Albania became the protectorate after the cessation of aggression, but with the economic depression, so that Germany, Italy on the catastrophic economic impact, the result led to the Nazi Hitler came to power and fascist Italy re-aggression, eventually ushered in the Second World War of the outbreak. Therefore, the Great Depression is more important.
Secondly, Paris Peace Conference paved the psychologic foundation for the adoption of appeasement policy by the Britain, which was especially important for the outbreak of the Second World War. Due to the harsh treatment towards Germany in the Paris Peace Conference, such as in the Treaty of Versailles凡爾賽條約, Germany was forced to disarm and cut down the army size to 100 thousand, losing over 10% population and land; in Saint German Treaty聖澤門條約 forbad the union of Germany and Austria. Consequently, the Britain tend to be sympathetic to Germany and adopted the appeasement policy in the 1930s. For instance, in 1935 when Germany had conscription徵兵制 again, the Britain regard it as a legitimate action, not only did Britain not prevent the conscription, Britain even signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement英德海軍協定 with Germany, allowing Germany to expand its navy force so that Germany has sufficient military power to initiate the Second World War.
However, the Great Depression is more in leading to the war as it is the direct factor causing Britain and France to adopt appeasement policy. The Great Depression led by the US in 1929 caused Britain and France into poor economy. To protect local industries, countries adopted the trade protection policy貿易保護主義 and raised the tax leading to a surge in world trade. Britain and France suffered the most as industry countries. In 1930s, Britain and France focused on tackling internal economic problem so adopted the appeasement policy and spared no time to stop the aggression. For example, in the 1938 Munich Agreement慕尼黑協定, the two countries handed the Sudetenland蘇台德區 in the hands of the Czech to Germany to avoid Germany's war against the Czech. But this greatly reduced the Czech national defense strength, so that the Czech捷克 in 1939 easily occupied by Germany, paving the way for the outbreak of the Second World War. In contrast, the implementation實行of the appeasement policy, the British and French in the 1920s did not significantly take the appeasement policy, France even took oppressive policies壓迫性政策 towards Germany, such as 1923 when Germany failed to repay the indemnity, France and Belgium invaded into Germany Ruhr district魯爾區. Thus, there are limitations of the Paris peace treaty for the emergence of appeasement policy. However, after the Great Depression, Britain and France were unable to maintain a tough policy under the economic blow, so they adopted the appeasement policy, and finally contributed to the expansion of Germany and the outbreak of war. As a result, the Great Depression is more important.
Thirdly, the Paris Peace Treaty brought negative impact to the collective security system. The superpowers added the “fourteen points和平十四點” rule during the setup of the Paris Peace Conference and one of the rule is to set up a peace keeping organisation. The League of Nation國聯 was thus established in 1920. However, US as one of the most powerful one in the Treaty, did not join the League of Nations. In 1930, Germany and Italy quitted the League in 1933 and 1937 respectively. The uselessness of the League showed the aggressors that the international society had no effective way to stop their invasion. As a result, this further facilitated their invasion like Germany merged with Austria奧地利 in 1938 and Italy invaded Albania阿爾巴尼亞 in 1939, paving the way to the outbreak of the Second World War.
However, the impact of the Great Depression is more important than the Paris Peace Treaty as it had a heavier blow to the collective security system. In terms of the League of Nations, the Great Depression seriously damaged the economy of Britain and France which made them not able to support the League. This further weakened the League in peace-keeping issues. In terms of disarmament conference, the Great Depression made France to take a more conservative stance under the fear that the poor economy would facilitate the aggressors’ invasion. For example, France refused to disarm during the London Naval Conference倫敦海軍會議(1930) thus weakened the effectiveness of the conference. The war as a result broke out when there was a lack of collective security system. Thus, the Great Depression made the collective security system ineffective and boost the aggression of the aggressors, leading to the outbreak of the war. When comparing the two factors, in terms of the nature性質, the setup of peace keeping body was to maintain peace which is in positive nature. Thus, the failure of the collective security system which led to the outbreak of the war should not be the responsibility of the Paris Peace Treaty. However, the consequences of the Great Depression were negative in nature. Before 1929, the collective security system also did maintain peace, such as the League of Nations successfully stopped most of the regional conflicts in 1920s, such as preventing Italy from attacking Corfu Island科孚島; Locarno Treaties羅加諾公約 and the Kellogg-Briand Pact凱格—白里安條約 also brought Europe a “honeymoon” period. However, the Great Depression put an end to the “honeymoon” period and further damaged the collective security system which the outbreak of the war was under the lack of collective security system. As a result, the Great Depression is more important.
In conclude, although the Paris Peace Conference is important to the outbreak of the Second World War, its negative influence started to deteriorate in the 1920s. The Europe even entered the “honeymoon” period at that time. However, the Great Depression in 1929 had started to change the situation, leading to the rise of totalitarianism, adoption of appeasement policy and the failure of the collective security. Its importance towards the outbreak of the Second World War is more critical than the Paris Peace Conference.
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