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「第一次世界大戰後的十年間國際氣氛已經有所改善，因此，第二次世界大戰於1939年爆發並非必然。」你是否同意此說？試就1919-39年間的史實，解釋你的答案。
架構 一次大戰後的十年間，隨著極權主義的發展一度衰落、集體安全體系的確立及列強的合作關係加強，國際氣氛已經有所改善。 // 立場因此，二次大戰於1939年的爆發實非必然，故題目所言確能成立。 主旨句 其一，極權主義的發展一度衰落反映國際氣氛有所改善。 // 內文在一次大戰結束後，雖然極權主義曾經一度發展起來，例如法西斯的墨索里尼於1922年成功在意大利取得政權；希特拉於1923年發動啤酒間叛變，在國內名聲大噪。然而，隨著歐洲經濟逐步改善及尋求和平的氣氛渲染下，極權主義的發展在1920年代中期已經一度緩慢下來，例如墨索里尼於1927年迫使阿爾巴尼亞成為其保護國後便再沒有採取擴張性外交，同時，希特拉納粹黨的發展也因德國經濟有所改善而遇到瓶頸。在極權主義發展趨向式微的情況底下，侵略已於1920年代末絕跡，國際氣氛已有所緩和。 // 小結可見，由於極權主義的勢力受到壓抑，大戰的爆發原本並非必然。
主旨句 然而，1930年代極權主義的再度崛興使大戰的爆發成為必然。 // 內文由於1929年的經濟大蕭條帶來了災難性的經濟破壞，將極權主義的發展從瓶頸中釋放出來。由於德國受經濟大蕭條打擊的影響甚深，直至1933年失業人數高達600萬人。結果，惡劣的經濟環境成為希特拉崛起的溫床，成功於1933年上台，其後更逐步進行擴張，例如1936年將萊茵河區軍事化、1938年吞併蘇台德區，最終大戰亦在德國突襲波蘭後爆發。此外，意大利亦然，惡劣的經濟環境使墨索里尼重新採取擴張性外交政策，例如在1935年侵占阿比西尼亞及1939年入侵阿爾巴尼亞。結果，大戰爆發在德、意極權主義的侵略下變得無可避免。 // 小結可見，極權主義的發展在1929年前曾經一度平息，但由於1930年代極權主義重新崛興才使大戰爆發，因此大戰的爆發本身並非必然。
其二，集體安全體系的出現使國際氣氛有所改善。列強為了避免大戰再次爆發，因此於1920年成立了國際聯盟用以維持和平，國聯的出現有助平息各國間的衝突，例如於1921年調停了德國及波蘭的領土糾紛及於1925年阻止了希臘入侵保加利亞。此外，各國也於1921-22年舉行了華盛頓會議，就各國海軍軍艦的數目上進行限制，減低軍備競賽。再者，國際社會已簽定了兩條和平條約，包括《羅加諾公約》(1925年)及《凱格—白里安約公約》(1928年)，其中《凱格—白里安公約》中各國承諾放棄以戰爭手段作為外交方針，最終使1920年代彌漫著和平的氣氛。可見，大戰結束後的十年氣氛已逐漸緩和，1920年代更被譽為是「歐洲的蜜月期」，故大戰爆發並非必然。
然而，1930年代集體安全體系的失效使大戰變得難以阻止。由於1929年經濟大蕭條使各國經濟遭受到嚴重的打擊，令各國需要專注解決國內經濟困局而減少參與維和事務，使集體安全體系的效力大減。例如在1930年的倫敦海軍會議中，雖然會議有邀請法、意兩國參與，但兩國就僅派觀察員出席，結果只有美、英、日三國達成裁軍協定。而且，英、法等強國對於國聯的參與度減少也使國聯變得無力，在阻止侵略中難以發揮強大的作用，例如國聯在1935年未能有效以制裁方式阻止意大利侵占阿比西尼亞。更甚，也因國聯在1930年代的弱點盡露，使德、意、日等侵略變得肆無忌憚，最終國聯也變得如同虛設，無助於阻止戰爭的爆發。可見，集體安全體系於1920年代曾發揮效用，大戰並非必然會爆發，但於1930年代的失效就使大戰變得難以避免。
其三，列強的合作出現顯示國際氣氛已經有所改善。一次大戰後，敵對氣氛已經逐步緩和，各國有進行合作以改善當時的狀況，例如在經濟議題上，美國願意提供道茲計劃(1924年)及楊格計劃(1929年)以援助德國，協助德國重建經濟，令到德國與其他國家關係大為改善。此外，在軍事議題方面，法國在1925年的羅加諾會議中分別與波蘭及捷克簽訂《互助條約》，以進行防守性的軍事合作，任何一方在受到攻擊時提供援助，顯示各國希望進行合作以免受攻擊。可見，1920年代的國際氣氛隨著列強的合作增加而有所改善，因此往後的大戰爆發實非必然。
然而，1930年代列能未能充分合作使大戰在欠缺阻力的情況下爆發。1929年的經濟大蕭條不但破壞了各國的經濟，使各國專注經濟而未能充分合作。而且，更惡化了國際局勢，因各國於經濟大蕭條後建立起貿易壁壘，以保護己國的國內市場免受外貨傾銷，結果導致各國關係日趨疏離。由於合作氣氛逐步減少，德、意、日等侵略國乘此缺口積極進行侵略，令大戰的爆發變得難以避免。例如，雖然法國與捷克早於1925年已簽訂《互助條約》，但1930年代法國與捷克的合作已日趨疏離，加上欠缺英國的支持，令法國在1939年德國吞併捷克的時候未有提供軍事援助，使德國能吞併捷克全境。此外，美國的不合作態度在1930年代更趨明顯，在德國由1938年吞併奧地利至1939年突襲波蘭觸發大戰的過程上，美國均不作干涉，希望避免捲入歐洲事務，最終缺乏足夠的勢力以阻止德國挑起戰爭。可見，1920年代曾經出現合作氣氛，但此氣氛於1930年代消散才使大戰爆發，因此，二次大戰的爆發本來並非必然。
總括而言，一次大戰後的十年間，國際氣氛的確有所改善，甚至被稱為「歐洲的蜜月期」，因此大戰的爆發實非必然。然而，由於1930年代極權主義再度興起，加上集體安全體系未能發揮效用，而列強也未有充分合作以阻止侵略國，結果就使大戰變得難以避免。
‘The international conditions had improved in the decade after the First World War. Therefore, the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939 was not inevitable.’ Do you agree? Explain your answer with reference to the period 1919-39.
The international conditions had improved in the decade after the First World War with the decline of totalitarian development, the establishment of collective security system, and the increasing cooperation among powers. Thus, the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939 was not inevitable, and the statement was agreed.
Firstly, the decline of totalitarian development reflected the improvement of international conditions. Totalitarianism once thrived after WW1, for instance, Hitler initiated the ‘Beer Hall Putsch’ 啤酒間叛變 in 1923, allowing him to gain popularity in the country. However, totalitarian development was slowed down in the mid-1920s with the improving economy of Europe and countries' desire for peace. For instance, Mussolini stopped adopting expansionist policies after turning Albania阿爾巴尼亞成 into Italy’s protectorate保護國 in 1927. At the same time, the improvement of Germany’s economy caused a bottleneck on the development of the Nazi Party. Under the situation which totalitarianism gradually declined, in which there were no invasions in the late-1920s, the international conditions had improved. Hence, the outbreak of WW2 was not inevitable.
However, totalitarianism rose to power in the 1930s made the outbreak of WW2 inevitable. The Great Depression in 1929 brought catastrophic destruction on the economy, and it eliminated the obstacles on the development of totalitarianism. Germany was greatly affected by the economic crisis, the number of unemployed even amounted to 6 million by 1933. As a result, the poor economy created a breeding ground for the rise of Hitler. He seized power in 1933 and gradually started expanding. For instance, Rhineland was remilitarized萊茵河區 in 1936, Sudetenland蘇台德區was annexed in 1938, and the WW2 was sparked off along with Germany’s incursion into Poland波蘭. Apart from that, the same happened to Italy too. The poor economic environment prompted Mussolini to adopt expansionist foreign policies again, for instance, the invasion to Abyssinia阿比西尼亞 and Albania阿爾巴尼亞 in 1935 and 1939 respectively. As a result, the outbreak of WW2 was inevitable under the totalitarian aggression. This showed that totalitarian development once declined before 1929, but the returned and rose of totalitarianism in the 1930s led to the outbreak of the WW2. Thus, the outbreak of the WW2 was not inevitable.
Secondly, the establishment of collective security system also improved the international conditions. In order to prevent the outbreak of war, the powers established the League of Nations in 1920 to preserve peace. The League of Nations helped resolving conflicts among countries, for instance, the territorial disputes between Germany and Poland波蘭 in 1921, and stopped Greece希臘 from invading Bulgaria保加利亞 in 1925. Also, the Washington Conference華盛頓會議 was held in 1921-22. It restricted the number of capital ships, and slowed down the armament race. Apart from that, the international community has signed two peace treaties, including Locarno Treaties羅加諾公約(1925) and Kellogg-Briand Pact凱格—白里安約公約(1928). The Kellogg-Briand Pact stated the renouncement of the use of war as the signees’ foreign policy. It paved the way to the peaceful atmosphere in the 1920s. This reflected that the international conditions had improved in the decade after WW1. The 1920s was even known as the ‘Honeymoon Period’ 歐洲的蜜月期. Hence, the outbreak of WW2 was not inevitable.
However, the losing efficacy of collective security system made WW2 became inevitable. As the Great Depression in 1929 greatly damaged the economies of countries, countries put more focus on alleviating economic problems. As a result, they seldom participated in peacekeeping affairs, and this greatly reduced the effectiveness of the collective security system. For instance, although France and Italy were invited to join the London Naval Conference倫敦海軍會議 in 1930, the two countries only sent observers to participate in it. At the end, consensus was reached only by the US, Britain and Japan. Moreover, the reducing participation of powers such as Britain and France in the League of Nations made it became ineffective. The League failed to deter countries from invading others. For instance, the League could not imposed effective sanctions to stop Italy from invading Albania阿比西尼亞. Worse still, as the limitations of the League were revealed, Germany, Italy and Japan became more unscrupulous. Eventually, the League became completely ineffective, and could hardly stop the outbreak of WW2. This showed that the collective security system was once effective in preserving peace in the 1920s, and the war was not inevitable. It was the losing efficacy of collective security in the 1930s made the outbreak of WW2 inevitable.
Thirdly, the increasing cooperation among powers showed the improvement of the international conditions. After WW1, hostility was reduced and countries had been cooperating to improve the situation. For instance, economically, the US was willing to provide economic assistance to Germany through the Dawes Plan道茲計劃(1924) and the Young Plan楊格計劃(1929). The aids helped Germany to reconstruct her economy, and this improved her relationship with other countries. Also, militarily, France signed the Treaty of Mutual Assistance互助條約 with Poland波蘭 and Czechoslovakia捷克. The treaty was signed together with the Locarno Conference羅加諾會議 in 1925. The aim of the treaty was to promote defensive military cooperation, as it stated that if any party was being invaded, others would provide assistance to help. This reflected that countries were willing to cooperate and freed from being invaded. It showed that the international conditions had improved along with the increasing cooperation among powers. Thus, the outbreak of WW2 was not inevitable.
However, the uncooperative attitude of powers led to the outbreak of WW2 without any resistance. The Great Depression in 1929 not only caused damage to the countries’ economies, it also made the countries failed to cooperate as they solely focus on solving their economic problems. Moreover, it worsened the international circumstance as countries built up trade barriers貿易壁壘 to protect their domestic market from being harmed by dumping of foreign products. As a result, relationships among countries became more distant. As the cooperative attitude among countries reduced, aggressors including Germany, Italy and Japan actively started invasion, and made the outbreak of WW2 inevitable. For instance, although France and Czechoslovakia捷克 signed the Treaty of Mutual Assistance as early as 1925, the cooperation of them was reduced in the 1930s. Also, the cooperation lacked support from Britain. So, France did not provide any military support to Czechoslovakia when she was being annexed by Germany. Moreover, the uncooperative attitude of the US was more obvious in the 1930s. The US did not involve from German annexation of Austria奧地利 in 1938 to her incursion into Poland波蘭 in 1939. This was due to her unwillingness in involving in European affairs, and it resulted in lacking power to deter Hitler from sparking off the war. This showed that the countries did cooperate in the 1920s. But, as the atmosphere disappeared in the 1930s, WW2 broke out. So, the outbreak of WW2 was not inevitable.
To conclude, the international conditions had improved in the decade after the First World War, the period was even known as the ‘Honeymoon Period’, and the outbreak of WW2 was not inevitable. However, as totalitarianism rose to power again in the 1930s, together with the failure of collective security system and the uncooperative attitude among powers, the outbreak of WW2 became inevitable.
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