以下內容乃K.W.Ho之補習教材，於課堂教授，內容乃配合K.W.Ho之答題方法及風格所製作，同時內容可能有錯誤之處以供在課堂上糾正。非補習學生在未有得到課堂教學的情況下錯誤使用，恕不負責，同學請敬請留意。
【Free】6000頁筆記及60份5**考卷免費使用：按此
Youtube教學：按此
_________________________________________________________________________
儘管自1905年列強之間爆發了數次嚴重衝突，為什麼全面戰爭要到1914年才爆發？試加以解釋。
架構 基於民族、同盟、軍事及領土利益等因素，一次大戰於1914年由塞拉耶佛危機所觸發而非1905-13年間的數次嚴重衝突。以下，將從上述因素探討1905-13年的衝突為何未有引發全面戰爭，但到1914年卻爆發全面戰爭。
主旨句 民族因素方面，1905-1913年時的民族仇恨未足夠導致戰爭爆發。 // 問題A的段落內容於1914年前，數次衝突均未有使民族仇恨惡化至戰爭爆發的層面，例如1905年及1911年兩次摩洛哥危機中，儘管法國因普法戰爭(1870-71年)戰敗之辱而一直伺機報復德國，但由於法國在兩次危機中均取得優勢，一雪前恥，故未有使德、法間爆發戰爭。此外，1908年的波斯尼亞危機是德、奧與俄、塞的首次正面衝突，更何況在此次危機前，俄、奧兩國已經商議了奧匈支持俄國軍艦通過博斯普魯斯及達達尼爾兩海峽；俄國則支持奧匈吞併波、黑兩地，危機最終爆發乃基於奧匈單方面先吞併兩地，而俄國卻未實現其所求而引致。由於奧俄兩國原本處於試圖交易的狀態，可見兩國本身的民族仇恨並非敵對至不可化的程度，此時俄國對德、奧的憎恨尚未達致需要開戰的地步。 // 小結可見，民族仇恨於1914年前尚未惡化至觸發戰爭的程度。
主旨句 然而，1914年民族仇恨達到巔峰，終使全面戰爭爆發。 // 問題B的段落內容由於塞拉耶佛危機中被刺殺的是奧匈皇儲斐迪南公爵，因此奧匈對塞爾維亞的不滿已經達到高峰，開出嚴苛的最後通牒以報復塞，最終塞拒於全盤接受，使奧、塞戰爭爆發。同時，塞拉耶佛危機牽涉到的是泛日耳曼主義與泛斯拉夫主義兩大民族的對壘，德、俄兩國的民族情緒均十分高漲，泛日耳曼主義的德國不惜開出「空白支票」以支持奧匈報復塞；泛斯拉夫主義的俄國也不甘塞受辱而第一個國家總動員以示支持。結果，塞拉耶佛危機成為撕破兩大民族關係的缺口，民族仇恨傾瀉而出，最終使德、奧與俄、塞的戰爭爆發。 // 小結可見，塞拉耶佛危機(1914年)使民族仇恨達到白熱化，導致戰爭爆發。
同盟方面，1905-13年間同盟關係尚未穩固，全面戰爭尚未爆發。三國協約方面，英國於1904年才和法國達成《摰誠協定》，至1907年才和過往的世仇俄國簽訂《英俄協約》，此等協定均只是諒解性質，沒有軍事義務。因此，英國與法、俄兩國的關係並不穩固，例如1908年波斯尼亞危機中，英國非但沒有支持俄國，更反對俄國軍艦通過博斯普魯斯海峽及達達尼爾海峽，打擊了俄國的野心，使俄國未敢於開戰。此外，三國同盟方面，意大利雖然是三國同盟的陣營，但在兩次摩洛哥危機(1905年；1911年)中，意大利均沒有支援德、奧陣營，此一不明朗的局勢使德國在危機中作出讓步，最終使危機沒有演變成戰爭。可見，同盟關係於1905-13年間尚未穩固，使雙方不敢貿然開戰。
然而，1914年時同盟關係發展穩固，成為全面戰爭爆發的有利條件。三國協約方面，英、法兩國已於1912年簽訂了《英法海軍協定》，英、法分別保護英倫海峽和地中海的海上安全，使原本的諒解協議升級為防守性的軍事同盟。也正正是此一因由，德國於1914年實行施里芬計劃通過比利時時，英國認為其舉動破壞了英倫海峽的安全，使英國對德宣戰。另一方面，由於意大利於過往的危機中均沒有支持德國，使德國認為奧匈才是堅定的盟友，故於塞拉耶佛危機中，不惜開出「空白支票」以強硬支持奧匈，最終使戰爭變得難以避免。可見，1914年時的同盟關係已經穩固，使地區性戰爭演變成全面戰爭。
軍事方面，1905-13年間，衝突的涉事國未有信心於戰爭中取得勝利，故避免了全面戰爭的爆發。在德國方面，由於兩次摩洛哥危機發生的地點是北非，海上戰事並非德國所擅長，加上德國海軍仍然處於起步階段，例如1905年時，英國擁有的普通型裝甲艦隻已達65艘，但德國卻只得26艘；1910年時，英國擁有10艘無畏艦，但德國卻只得5艘，因此使德國盡量避免與英、法爆發海上戰事，令兩次摩洛哥危機均未有演變成戰爭。另外，俄國於1905年日俄戰爭中敗陣，傷亡達27萬人，損失98艘艦隻，於1908年波斯尼亞危機時元氣仍然尚未恢復，故俄國盡量避免與德、奧開戰，因而使危機最終得到平息。可見，1905-13年間，各國並未作好開戰的軍事準備，使全面戰爭未有爆發。
然而，1914年時，各國開戰的信心大增，故使戰爭爆發。德國方面，塞拉耶佛危機爆發後，德國相信能夠利用其強大陸軍的優勢，實行施里芬計劃，迅速攻陷法國，然後再攻打俄國，因而使德國的開戰信心大增。同時，俄國大幅增加陸軍人數，至1914年時已經高達180萬人，令其更勇於開戰，於塞拉耶佛危機後總動員以支持塞，使戰爭爆發。此外，法國於1912-13年間也與俄國共同制定了第十七號計劃和第十九號計劃，於戰時東西夾擊德國，使法國更有信心能於戰爭中取得勝利，故積極支持俄國。而且，英國在無畏艦方面有所領先德國，於1914年，英國擁有34艘，較德國多出12艘，令英國有信心於海面戰線上取得勝利，從而介入戰爭。可見，1914年時各國的開戰信心大增，最終令各國參與戰爭，全面戰爭爆發。
領土利益方面，1905-13年間，衝突所發生的地點價值利益較低，故未有使全面戰爭爆發。其中，德、法於兩次摩洛哥危機中所爭奪的摩洛哥是在北非，爆發戰爭所帶來的損失可能遠遠較殖民地利益大，因此不足以令兩個歐洲大國爆發戰爭。此外，雖然波斯尼亞危機是發生於巴爾幹，但波斯尼亞早於1878年柏林會議後已歸到奧匈管治，故奧匈吞併波斯尼亞的舉動沒有對俄國造成重大損失，加上俄國仍然有塞作為其於巴爾幹擴張的跳板，俄國因此而未有開戰。此外，1912-13年間的兩次巴爾幹戰爭只是土耳其與巴爾幹小國間的戰爭，並沒有直接觸及五大強國的利益，因此實不足以使列強介入戰爭。可見，1905-13年間的衝突不值得列強為此而開戰，故沒有導致全面戰爭的出現。
然而，1914年塞拉耶佛危機直接觸及大國的重要利益，因而使全面戰爭爆發。對奧匈而言，塞拉耶佛危機提供了最佳的藉口予奧匈，以嚴苛的最後通牒，甚至是發動戰爭的方式，徹底削弱塞的勢力，使塞不能再與其對抗，從而大大加強其在巴爾幹的勢力。但同時，塞一旦失勢，將會使俄國失去在巴爾幹擴張的唯一跳板，令俄國無法於危機中置身事外，故不惜第一個國家總動員以支持塞，戰爭因而變得無可避免。加上，英、法深恐俄、塞一旦戰敗，將會破壞了原有的勢力均衡，使其難以再與德、奧抗衡，大大打擊了兩國往後的利益。結果，英、法介入戰爭以支持俄、塞，使戰爭全面爆發。可見，塞拉耶佛危機觸及了大國的利益，使全面戰爭爆發。
總括而言，儘管1905-13年間，列強之間已爆發了數次嚴重衝突，但基於民族、同盟、軍事及領土利益等方面的因素，全面戰爭至1914年塞拉耶佛危機後才爆發。
Explain why a total war did not break out until 1914 despite serious conflicts between the powers since 1905.
Owing to national, alliance, military and territorial interest factors, WW1 caused by the Sarajevo Incident in 1914 rather than several serious conflicts during the period of 1905-13. This essay will explain why a general war did not caused by several serious conflicts during the period of 1905-13, but broke out in 1914.
In terms of the national factor, national hatred was not intense enough to cause a war in the period 1905-1913. Before 1914, there were several conflicts but they did not escalate hatred among nations into actual wars. For instance, during the two Moroccan Crises兩次摩洛哥危機 of 1905 and 1911, despite France’s desire for revenge on Germany for its defeat in the Franco-Prussian War普法戰爭(1870-71), there were no wars between the two countries since France gained an edge in both crises and made a comeback after the humiliation. In addition, the Bosnian Crisis波斯尼亞危機(1908) was the first direct conflict between the coalition of Germany and Austria-Hungary and the alliance of Russia and Serbia. Before this crisis, Austria-Hungary and Russia made an agreement that the former would allow Russian warships to travel across Bosphorus Strait博斯普魯斯and Dardanelles Strait達達尼爾海峽 while the latter would support the Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina波、黑. And the origin of the crisis was that Austria-Hungary solely decided to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina while Russia’s demands were not satisfied. Since the two countries tried to make a deal with each other, it was clear that national hatred between them was not so irreconcilable that they could only resort to war. It can be concluded that before 1914, national hatred did not reach the level that would lead to war.
However, national hatred reached its summit, thus breaking out of war in 1914. Archduke Ferdinand斐迪南公爵, the Crown Prince of Austria was assassinated in the Sarajevo Incident. Austria-Hungary’s dissatisfied with Serbia reached its summit. After that, it issued harsh ultimatum最後通牒 in order to take revenge on Serbia. Serbia refused to accept it, leading to war between Austria and Serbia. Meanwhile, the Sarajevo Incident involved the confrontation between Pan-Slavism泛日耳曼主義and Pan-Germanism泛日耳曼主義. The national sentiment of Germany and Russia were fierce. Pan-Germanic Germany issued the “blank cheque” 「空白支票」 in support of Austria-Hungary taking revenge on Serbia. Pan-Slavic Russia was unwilling Serbia to suffer humiliation and thus announced general mobilization總動員 to show its support. Finally, the Sarajevo Incident worsened the relationship of these two races and national hatred was intense, leading to war between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia, Serbia. It showed that the Sarajevo Incident (1914) made national hatred become white-hot, causing WW1.
In terms of alliance, relationship of alliances was not stable during the period of 1905-13, thus not causing full-scale war. Regarding the Triple Entente, Britain signed the Entente Cordiale《摰誠協定》(1904) with France and the Anglo-Russian Entente《英俄協約》(1907) with Russia. These agreements were compromises in nature and did not have military obligation. Thus, relationship among Britain, France and Russia was not stable. For instance, Britain did not support Russia and even opposed Russian warships to travel across the Bosphorus Strait博斯普魯斯海峽 and the Dardanelles Strait達達尼爾海峽 in the Bosnian Crisis波斯尼亞危機(1908), buffeting Russian ambition. Russia was not confident enough to declare a war. Moreover, regarding the Triple Alliance, although Italy was a member of the Triple Alliance, it did not support Germany and Austria-Hungary in the two Moroccan Crises兩次摩洛哥危機(1905; 1911). Germany gave way in these crises because of the uncertain situation. In the end, these crises were not developed into a war. It showed that the alliance relationship was not stable in 1905-13. They were not confident enough to declare war.
However, relationship of alliances was stable in 1914, which became a favorable factor in causing a full-scale war. Regarding the Triple Entente, Britain and France signed the Anglo-French Naval Agreement《英法海軍協定》(1912) which stated that they would preserve the peace of the English Channel英倫海峽 and the Mediterranean地中海 respectively, developing the entente agreement into defensive military alliance. In this regard, when Germany launched the Schlieffen Plan施里芬計劃(1914) and decided to pass through Belgium比利時, Britain thought that the action of Germany destroyed the peace of the English Channel, thus declaring war on Germany. Furthermore, since Italy did not support Germany in previous crises, Germany regarded Austria-Hungary as the only steady ally. Hence, it issued the “blank cheque” 「空白支票」 in support of Austria-Hungary in the Sarajevo Incident and war became inevitably. It showed that relationship of alliances was stable in 1914 and thus developed local war into full-scale war.
In military aspect, participating countries in conflicts were not confident enough to gain victory during the period of 1905-13, thus preventing full-scale war from breaking out. Regarding Germany, the two Moroccan Crises兩次摩洛哥危機 took place in North Africa. However, Germany navy did not good at sea war and it was still in infancy. For example, Britain possessed of 65 ordinary armored ships, but Germany only had 26 of it in 1905. In 1910, Britain possessed of 10 dreadnoughts, but Germany only had 5 of it. Hence, Germany avoided breaking out sea war with Britain and France, thus not developing the two Moroccan Crises into war. Besides, Russia, which suffered 270 thousand casualties and lost 98 warships, was defeated in Russo-Japanese War日俄戰爭(1905). Therefore, Russia was not fully recovered during the Bosnian Crisis波斯尼亞危機(1908) and it did not declaredwar on Germany and Austria-Hungary. Crisis could be settled finally. It showed that countries were not well-prepared for war in 1905-13, preventing war from breaking out.
However, countries were full of confidence in 1914, leading to the outbreak of war. Regarding Germany, Germany believed that it could make use of its strong army to adopt Schlieffen Plan施里芬計劃, which defeated France and Russia at a fast pace. Germany thus had confidence to declare war. Meanwhile, Russia greatly increased the number of soldiers, which had 1.8 million in 1914. It was eager to declare war, thus supporting Serbia with general mobilization in the Sarajevo Incident. A war therefore broke out. Furthermore, France and Russia carried out the Plan 17第十七號計劃 and the Plan 19第十九號計劃 during the period of 1912-13, which decided to attack Germany from both east and west sides during wartime. France was confident in gaining victory in war, therefore actively supporting Russia. In addition, Britain surpassed Germany in dreadnought無畏艦 building. Britain possessed of 34 dreadnoughts, which were 12 more than that of Germany. Hence, Britain was confident in gaining victory in sea front and involved in war finally. It showed that countries were full of confidence in 1914 and thus involved in war, leading to the outbreak of full-scale war.
In terms of territorial interest, the value of conflict location was low, thus not leading to a full-scale war. In the two Moroccan Crises兩次摩洛哥危機, Germany and France struggled for Morocco, which located in North Africa. Colonial interests might be far below the losses caused by war. Hence, these two European powers refused to declare war. Moreover, although Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and the Bosnian Crisis波斯尼亞危機 took place in the Balkans, it did not bring any loss to Russia since Bosnia had been already under Austrian rule after Berlin Conference柏林會議(1878). Also, Russia had Serbia as its springboard of Balkans expansion therefore it did not not declar war. In addition, the two Balkan Wars兩次巴爾幹戰爭(1912-13) were wars between Turkey and Balkan states, which did not directly harm the European powers’ interest. They therefore refused to involve in wars. It showed that European powers were not worth involving in war regarding conflicts during the period of 1905-13, thus not leading to the outbreak of war.
However, the Sarajevo Incident directly harmed the interests of European powers, leading to a full-scale war. Austria-Hungary weakened Serbia by issuing harsh ultimatum最後通牒 and declaring war under the pretext of the Sarajevo Incident (1914). Serbia therefore could no longer confront it and expanded the Austrian sphere of influence in the Balkans. Meanwhile, if Serbia lost influence, Russia would lose the only springboard of Balkan expansion. Hence, Russia could not stay out in this crisis, thus announcing general mobilization總動員 in support of Serbia. War became inevitably. Moreover, Britain and France worried that if Russia and Serbia were defeated, the balance of power would be destroyed and they could no longer confronted with Germany and Austria-Hungary, greatly affecting the future interest of them. As a result, Britain and France involved in war in order to support Russia and Serbia, which led to a full-scale war. It showed that the Sarajevo Incident harmed the interests of powers, thus leading to full-scale war.
In conclusion, despite the eruption of serious conflicts among the great powers during the period of 1905-13, full-scale war broke out until the Sarajevo Incident (1914) owing to national, alliance, military and territorial interest factors.
Comentarios