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為何冷戰結束於1989-91年間而非1970年代的低盪時期？
背景 雖然冷戰於1970年代進入了低盪時期，資本主義與共產主義陣營的關係有所改善，但冷戰未能於當時結束，反於1979年踩入「新冷戰」時期，至1980年代末才能結束。 // 架構以下，將從領導層、軍事、經濟等方面的因素分析。
主旨句 領導層因素是冷戰於1980年代末結束的要因。 // 問題A段落內容儘管1981年當選的美國總統列根對蘇聯持對抗的政策，例如於1986年發表「列根主義」，主張與蘇聯爭奪第三世界的勢力。然而，蘇聯方面，1985年戈巴卓夫上台，其上台時僅得54歲，是蘇聯最年輕的領導人，也是最開明及極具親和力的政治家及外交家。於戈巴卓夫上台後，其隨即致力改善與西方國家的關係，例如於1985年與美國總統列根和英國首相戴卓爾夫人會面，使美、英兩國對其領導的新蘇聯改觀。其後，戈巴卓夫與列根也於1986、1987及1988年進行多次會晤，為緩和兩國的關係及冷戰的局面作出了重大的努力。更甚，戈巴卓夫於1989年的馬爾他會議中指出「將冷戰丟進地中海」，與美國總統喬治布殊共同宣布冷戰結束，成為冷戰結束的其中一個重要指標。 // 小結可見，蘇聯戈巴卓夫的上台成為冷戰得以結束的重要因素。
主旨句 反之，1970年代的領導層因素難以使冷戰能夠終結。 // 問題B段落內容儘管冷戰於1970年代曾經緩和，例如資本主義和共產主義主義陣營於1975年簽訂《赫爾辛基協定》，雙方承諾互相尊重，有助營造良好的國際氣氛。然而，冷戰首領— 美、蘇雙方的領袖均仍然不願完全放下強硬的政策，結束雙方的對抗關係。蘇聯方面，布尼茲里夫是1966-82年間的領導人，但其作風強硬，在任內就曾派軍隊鎮壓了捷克的民主化運動「布拉格之春」(1968年)，並在事後推行「布尼茲里夫主義」，加強對外擴張和對東歐的控制。正正基於布尼茲里尼的強硬外交政策，使美、蘇雙方未能完全放下芥蒂。至於美國方面，美國在1970年代末的美國總統為卡特(1977-81年)，卡特也對蘇聯採對抗性的政策，例如其於1979年發表「卡特主義」，表示會以一切軍事力量以擊退任何試圖控制波斯灣地區的外來勢力，將矛頭指向蘇聯使美蘇關係進入了「新冷戰」局面。 // 小結可見，1970年代的領導層因素使冷戰未能於低盪時期結束。
軍事因素也是冷戰於1980年代末結束的要因。西方國家方面，1980年代時，美國對蘇聯採取的軍事策略以拖垮蘇聯經濟為目標，例如列根於1983年提出「星戰計劃」，指要聯同北約成員國聯手研發太空攔截技術，希望藉此拖垮蘇聯的經濟，令其投放更多資金於太空爭奪的範疇，加深經濟問題。西方的軍事策略終使蘇聯承擔沉重的經濟壓力，於1980年代中後期開展了裁軍的談判，例如達成《中程導彈裁撤條約》(1987年)，削減了美國與蘇聯的導彈數目。蘇聯方面，蘇聯於1980年代中後期開始採取溫和的軍事策略，對於緩和冷戰關係意義重大，例如於1988年撤回蘇聯駐阿富汗的軍隊，並於同年單方面宣佈裁減50萬軍隊。蘇聯單方面的撤軍、裁軍對於緩和冷戰局面極具重要性，使西方資本主義陣營對蘇聯戒心大減，最終更有助推動70年代談判失敗的《歐洲常規裁軍條約》於1990年簽訂，實現了北約與華沙公約成員國之間的裁軍。可見，1980年代的軍事因素有助冷戰的結束。
反之，1970年代的軍事因素是冷戰未能於低盪時期結束的要因。雖然在1970年代的低盪時期，資本主義與共產主義陣營在軍事方面的緊張氣氛有所緩和，例如美、蘇於1972年及1979年達成了兩階段的「限制戰略武器談判」，美國也於1973年從越南撤軍。然而，1970年代末蘇聯的軍事行動就成為了結束上述緩和氣氛的導火線。由於蘇聯於1979年出兵阿富汗，以支持親蘇的阿富汗派系，結果直接使西方國家極為不滿，美國國會更即時擱置了原本已簽訂的《第二階段限制戰略武器條約》，使1970年代的低盪時期正式告終。此外，由於1970年代軍備競賽問題仍然存在，例如即使美、蘇試圖就戰略武器進行談判，但蘇聯的飛彈飛射器數量已經超越美國，雙方的猜忌仍然存在，不願放下，故即使歐洲常規裁軍的談判自1973年已經開始，但卻在低盪時期一直談判不果，令北約和華沙公約的軍事對立局面仍然存在，妨礙了冷戰的結束。可見，1970年代的軍事因素是冷戰未能結束的要因。
經濟因素也是冷戰於1980年代末結束的要因。嚴重的經濟問題不但是上述蘇聯與西方國家在1980年代中後期達成裁軍協定及從阿富汗撤軍的要因，同時也使蘇聯需要減低對於東歐國家的操控，以削減國家開支。隨著1980年代初蘇聯國內糧食歉收，需要在國際糧食市場大量採購。美國通過法令使國內小麥耕種面積減少達1/3，使蘇聯在糧食上的開支上漲，再加上西方國家的「星戰計劃」使蘇聯投放大量開支於太空科技方面，蘇聯的經濟問題日益嚴重。至戈巴卓夫上台後，其失當的經濟政策更不但未能改善經濟，反使經濟進一步陷入衰退，例如著重重工業的發展使日用品、消費品短缺，市民搶購成風，造成「麵包荒」、「肥皂荒」等混亂不斷，通貨膨脹也隨之出現。此等經濟問題造成的影響更蔓延至加盟國和衛星國，以致1980年代後期多個東歐國家出現罷工及騷動，成為了東歐變天及蘇聯解體的要因，以致冷戰告終。可見，蘇聯嚴重的經濟問題是其解體及冷戰結束的催化劑。
反之，1970年代蘇聯經濟上的情況使冷戰未能於低盪時期結束。儘管蘇聯在1970年代維持高企的軍事開支，例如1979年時的國防開支就佔國民生產總值的16%，使蘇聯面對一定的經濟壓力。然而，1970年代蘇聯經濟的發展尚未至崩潰的地步，反之，作為石油大國之一的蘇聯憑著1970年代的兩次石油危機(1973年、1979年)而受惠。於兩次石油危機時，由於石油輸出國家組織減少輸出石油，使國際石油價格高企，蘇聯當時大量輸出石油，使其經濟於1970年代維持了穩定的增長。於1950年時，蘇聯的國民生產總值僅得美國的約37%，但至1970年代末就上升至超過70%。在經濟條件尚可的情況底下，蘇聯的分離勢力尚未成氣候，同時也使蘇聯在軍事上繼續採取強硬政策以對抗西方及控制東歐國家。可見，1970年代蘇聯的經濟狀況未能使冷戰於低盪時期結束。
總括而言，儘管冷戰於1970年代進入了低盪時期，兩大陣營的緊張局面有所緩和。然而，基於領導層、軍事、經濟等方面的因素影響，冷戰並未能於1970年代結束，反而於1991年落幕。
Why did the Cold War end during the period 1989-91 instead of the era of détente in the 1970s?
In the 1970s, the Cold War moved into the era of détente but did not come to an end despite improving relations between the capitalist and communist blocs. Instead, it evolved into the New Cold War in 1979 and officially ended only in the late 1980s. This essay is going to examine the reasons behind in terms of the leadership, military and economic factors.
The leaderships played an important role in ending the Cold War in the 1980s. It was true that Ronald Reagan列根, who was elected President of the United States in 1981, supported actions against the Soviet Union. For example, he proposed the Reagan Doctrine列根主義 in 1986 under which efforts were made to diminish Soviet influence in Third World countries. However, as for the Soviet Union, Gorbachev戈巴卓夫 assumed power in 1985 at the age of 54. As the youngest head of state in Soviet history, he was a politician and diplomat with charisma and an open mind. Right after his rise to power, Gorbachev attempted to improve Soviet relations with the West. For example, in 1985, he met with US President Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher戴卓爾 and changed their views on the new Soviet Union under his leadership. This was followed by several meetings between Gorbachev and Reagan between 1986 and 1988 as significant efforts to alleviate their rivalry and the tension of the Cold War. Moreover, at the Malta Summit馬爾他會議 of 1989, Gorbachev declared that ‘the Cold War would be dumped down to the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea將冷戰丟進地中海’ and announced the end of the Cold War with US President George Bush. This was one of the important indications of the end of the Cold War. Therefore, the rise of Gorbachev as the Soviet head of state was an important factor that terminated the Cold War.
In contrast, the leaderships in the 1970s failed to put an end to the Cold War. It was true that the tension of the Cold War once eased in the 1970s. For example, the two blocs reached the Helsinki Agreement赫爾辛基協定in 1975 that guaranteed their mutual respect, contributing to a favourable global political climate. However, as the leaders of the two blocs, the American and Soviet heads of state remained reluctant to abandon their strong-arm tactics and end the rivalry. As for the Soviet Union, Brezhnev布尼茲里夫 ruled the country between 1966 and 1982 with a high-handed leadership style. During his term of office, he ordered the brutal suppression of the Prague Spring布拉格之春(1968), a democratic movement in Czechoslovakia, and introduced the Brezhnev Doctrine布尼茲里夫主義 that supported foreign expansion and tightened control over Eastern Europe. It was Brezhnev’s hardline foreign policy that prevented the two superpowers from putting the old grudges behind. As for the United States, Jimmy Carter卡特 was President of the United States in the late 1970s (1977-81) and he supported policies against the Soviet Union. For instance, he announced the Carter Doctrine卡特主義 in 1979, claiming that the United States would use military force, if necessary, to defend the Persian Gulf against any outside force attempting to control the region. His stance against the Soviet Union led the two superpowers to the New Cold War. Therefore, the leaderships in the 1970s prevented the Cold War from ending in the era of détente.
The military factor was also an important one that contributed to the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s. As for the West, in the 1980s, America’s military strategy was aimed to overwhelm the Soviet economy. For example, Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative星戰計劃 in 1983 to develop a space-based missile defense system with the NATO members with the hidden intention of wrecking the economy of the Soviet Union by forcing it to allocate resources for the Space Race that could have been used to deal with its economic problems. The Western military strategy led to a huge economic drain on the Soviet Union and eventually their disarmament talks in the mid-late 1980s, which resulted in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty中程導彈裁撤條約(1987) with the partial elimination of missiles possessed by the two superpowers. As for the Soviet Union, it adopted a milder military strategy in the mid-late 1980s that carried huge significance to the détente. For example, in 1988, it withdrew its combatant forces from Afghanistan阿富汗 and offered a unilateral cut of 500,000 in the military. Its withdrawal and troop cut were significantly important to the détente since they made the West less wary of the Soviet Union and eventually led to the signing of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty歐洲常規裁軍條約 in 1990 despite a failed precedent in the 1970s, making disarmament between the NATO and Warsaw Pact possible. Therefore, the military factor did contribute to the end of the Cold War in the 1980s.
In contrast, the military factor in the 1970s was an important one that prevented the Cold War from ending during the détente period. It was true that military tension between the two blocs was easing during the détente period. For example, the US and the USSR had two rounds of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks限制戰略武器談判 in 1972 and 1979 respectively, and the US withdrew its troops from Vietnam in 1973. However, Soviet military actions in the late 1970s paved the way for the end of détente. Its invasion of Afghanistan阿富汗 in 1979 in favour of pro-Soviet Afghan groups greatly upset the West. In response, the US Congress shelved the SALT II Treaty第二階段限制戰略武器條約 that was already signed, marking the end of détente in the 1970s. In addition, the problem of arms race still existed in the 1970s. Despite the two superpowers’ attempts at dismantling strategic weapons, they remained suspicious of each other and reluctant to disarm completely since the number of missile launchers possessed by the Soviet Union had surpassed that of the United States. For this reason, negotiations on the disarmament of conventional forces in Europe started in 1973 but achieved nothing during détente. Military confrontation between the NATO and Warsaw Pact remained as an obstacle to the end of the Cold War. Therefore, the military factor was important in preventing the Cold War from ending in the 1970s.
The economic factor was also an important one that ended the Cold War in the late 1980s. Acute economic problems not only prompted the Soviet Union to reach disarmament agreements with the West and withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, but also made it necessary to lessen its control over Eastern Europe to reduce government spending. In the early 1980s, the Soviet Union experienced crop yield reductions and found it necessary to import food from international markets, while the US passed law to reduce the area devoted to wheat production by one-third. This led to a surge in food prices for the Soviet Union. In addition, the Strategic Defense Initiative星戰計劃 by the West motivated the Soviet Union to allocate huge amount of resources to space technology and worsened its economic problems. After the rise of Gorbachev, his inappropriate economic policy did not improve the economy but led the country to recession. For example, its excessive emphasis on heavy industry led to the shortage of daily necessities and consumer goods. With everyone scrambling for these products, there were chaotic situations such as bread shortage麵包荒 and soap shortage肥皂荒 coupled with serious inflation that affected not only the USSR but also its satellite states衛星國. As a consequence, there were strikes and riots in several Eastern European countries in the late 1980s that contributed to the political upheavals in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the USSR, which were both important to the end of the Cold War. Therefore, the severe economic problems faced by the USSR were a catalyst for its dissolution and the end of the Cold War.
In contrast, the Soviet economic conditions in the 1970s explained why the Cold War did not end in the détente period. It was true that the high military expenditures in the 1970s placed a heavy economic burden on the Soviet Union in the 1970s. For example, its military expenses amounted to 16% of its GNP in 1979. However, its economy was not near collapse in the 1970s. On the contrary, the Soviet Union, as a major oil-exporting country, benefited from the two Oil Crises石油危機 in the 1970s (1973 and 1979 to be exact). During these two crises, global oil prices went up due to OPEC’s石油輸出國家組織 production cuts, and the Soviet Union achieved steady economic growth by exporting more oil. In the 1950s, the GNP of the Soviet Union was only about 37% of that of the United Sates; however, in the late 1970s, that figure increased to more than 70%. Under passable economic conditions, separationist forces within the country did not gain enough momentum and the Soviet Union was able to maintain its strong-arm tactic for the West and Eastern Europe. Therefore, the economic conditions in the 1970s prevented the Cold War from ending during détente.
In conclusion, the Cold War entered the détente period in the 1970s when tension between the two blocs was easing. However, due to the leadership, military and economic factors, the Cold War ended not in the 1970s but in 1991.
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