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選取以下事件中任何兩項，探討該等事件為何未有觸發美、蘇兩國的直接戰爭：
(a) 柏林危機(1948-49)
(b)古巴導彈危機(1962)
(c) 蘇聯入侵阿富汗(1979)
背景 柏林封鎖(1948-49年)是二次大戰後美、蘇首次直接衝突，古巴導彈危機(1962年)則是冷戰期間美、蘇最接近全面戰爭的一次危機。 // 架構 其中，前者未有導致兩國爆發直接戰爭的原因是基於自身利益問題、勢力均衡的局面及二次大戰的影響，至於對核戰的恐懼及聯合國的斡旋，亦同樣令古巴導彈危機未有演變成美、蘇直接交戰。以下將分別討論兩次危機未有觸發美、蘇直接戰爭的原因。
主旨句 其一，柏林封鎖未有直接損害美、蘇雙方的自身利益，故未有觸發直接戰爭。 // 問題A段落內容 柏林封鎖的出現是由美、英、法試圖合併三國在德國的佔領區，繼而推行貨幣改革促成：蘇聯擔心美、英、法的舉動會危害其德國佔領區(日後的東德)內的經濟穩定，於是封鎖通往西柏林的交通要道。然而，事件中蘇聯的利益並未受到直接損害，它仍能夠維持對東德的控制權，美國方面也未有因蘇聯的封鎖而受到國防威脅。因此，柏林危機並未有對美、蘇兩國造成直接及嚴重的損害，在此情況下，雙方均不願以直接交戰的方式解決衝突。 // 小結 可見，柏林封鎖對美、蘇的影響有限，令是次危機未有觸發兩個超級大國之間的直接戰爭。
其二，勢力均衡的局面使柏林封鎖未有演變為直接戰爭。二次大戰後，美國與蘇聯勢均力敵，互相箝制，形成勢力均衡的局面。例如美國早於1945年成功研發出原子彈，成為當時破壞力最強的武器；蘇聯坐擁600萬軍隊、5萬輛坦克及2萬架戰機，實力能與美國匹敵。在軍力均勢下，美、蘇皆沒有必定擊敗對方的把握，使雙方於柏林封鎖期間均持保守態度，沒有採取軍事行動。再者，雖然蘇聯於二次大戰後控制了東歐眾衛星國，勢力大幅膨脹，但美國於柏林封鎖時亦聯合英、法等11國組成防禦性的軍事同盟北約(1949年)，使蘇聯擔心戰爭的爆發會對自己不利，因此作出退讓，於北約建立後一個月結束封鎖西柏林，危機隨之和平告終。可見，勢力均衡的局面促使美、蘇未有因柏林封鎖而直接交戰。
其三，二次大戰的影響令柏林封鎖未有引發美、蘇直接戰爭。二次大戰帶來災難性的破壞，造成約7,000萬人死亡，是人類史上死傷人數最多的戰爭。戰後，各國普遍出現厭戰心態，不希望再次爆發戰爭以致生靈塗炭，有助柏林封鎖未有演變成為全面戰爭。其中，美、英、法等一方於危機期間並未採取軍事行動迫使蘇聯解除封鎖，反派遣大量飛機通過三條「空中走廊」為西柏林的居民提供物資補給；同時實行反封鎖政策作回應，切斷蘇聯佔領區的鋼鐵、焦煤及電力供應。因此，雖然柏林封鎖使美、蘇關係惡化，但因雙方恐懼戰爭再次爆發，故沒有展開武力對抗。可見，二次大戰的影響使美、蘇均不希望戰事再起，有助讓柏林封鎖避免演變為雙方直接交戰。
從上述可見柏林封鎖未有觸發美、蘇直接交戰的原因，而以下則將繼續探討古巴導彈危機為何未有演變成美、蘇的一場「熱戰」。
主旨句 其一，對核戰的恐懼使美、蘇未有因古巴導彈危機爆發直接戰爭。 // 問題B段落內容 繼美國後，蘇聯亦於1949年成功研發原子彈，核武競賽令雙方擔心毀滅性戰爭的爆發，繼而願意作出讓步。因此，在古巴導彈危機期間，縱然美、蘇雙方已經調動軍隊，隨時作好開戰準備，但基於對核戰的恐懼，雙方最終同意退讓，達成和解，避免直接交戰。事後，兩個超級大國更針對核武問題展開裁軍會議，例如於1963年簽訂《禁止核試條約》，以限制核試驗的方式緩和核武競賽及冷戰緊張局勢，使美、蘇處於低谷的關係得以改善。 // 小結 可見，對核戰的恐懼使美、蘇雙方願意進行調解，古巴導彈危機得以避免發展成為一場全面戰爭。
其二，聯合國的斡旋亦有助避免古巴導彈危機升級至美、蘇直接戰爭。聯合國是二次大戰後成立的國際維和組織，旨在調停各國的衝突，避免戰爭爆發。於古巴導彈危機期間，聯合國擔當調解者的角色，積極居中斡旋，不但呼籲美、蘇避免採取任何令局勢惡化的行動，更大膽提出確保古巴安全以換取蘇聯撤回導彈的建議，結果獲得美、蘇認同。及後，聯合國秘書長吳丹又成功游說古巴領導人卡斯特羅同意撤走蘇聯的導彈及轟炸機，成為美、蘇分歧調解的契機。基於美國免受蘇聯在古巴佈置的導彈威脅，蘇聯亦得到美國不會入侵古巴的承諾，雙方最終在聯合國的斡旋下達成和解，未有訴諸戰爭。可見，聯合國於古巴導彈危機時發揮了積極的作用，有助調停美、蘇衝突，令事件未有演變成為全面戰爭。
總括而言，柏林封鎖及古巴導彈危機皆為冷戰期間的重大危機。不過，兩次事件雖同使美、蘇雙方關係白熱化，但基於自身利益問題、勢力均衡局面、二次大戰的影響、對核戰的恐懼及聯合國的斡旋，直接的「熱戰」並未有爆發，「冷」局面得以維持。
附：選擇C項「蘇聯入侵阿富汗(1979)」
其一，蘇聯入侵阿富汗並未有直接損害美國的利益，故直接戰爭未有爆發。由於阿富汗擁有大量油礦資源，並且鄰近蘇聯，蘇聯早於1950年代已積極干預當地的內政，希望從中取利。但是，美、阿關係本來並不密切，而即使蘇聯取得阿富汗的控制權，亦無法獲得「不凍港」以擴展其海軍勢力範圍，美國也仍然能維持其在中東石油地區的優勢勢力。因此，在未有對美國的利益造成直接及重大破壞下，美國不願以武力介入衝突，只是於1980年發表「卡特主義」，強調美國將以軍事力量擊退任何意圖控制波斯灣地區的外來勢力，同時向阿富汗反共勢力提供間接支援，美、蘇最終未有因阿富汗問題交戰。可見，蘇聯入侵阿富汗未有直接損害美國的自身利益，美國於是沒有全面介入，與蘇聯直接交戰。
其二，對戰爭的恐懼令美國沒有積極介入蘇聯入侵阿富汗，避免直接戰爭的爆發。越戰給予美國慘痛的教訓，因1965-73年間參戰的美軍死亡人數超過5萬8000人，耗費達1,000億美元。美國國內隨之出現強烈的反戰情緒，質疑以武力圍堵共產主義的外交政策，使美國政府致力避免再干預地區衝突。再者，自美國於1945年研發原子彈後，蘇聯亦於1949年成功試爆原子彈，至1970年代其核武數量甚至超越美國(如於1975年擁有約2,400枚戰略導彈，較美國多40%)。在蘇聯的核武數量急增下，美國對蘇聯軍事實力猜忌增多，甚至憂慮一旦開戰會遭到毀滅性打擊。因此，在蘇聯於1979年入侵阿富汗後，美國未有積極介入，只是以杯葛莫斯科奧運會(1980年)、間接為反共勢力提供支援等較溫和的方式作抗議，雙方未有為此爆發戰爭。可見，對戰爭的恐懼促使美國以非武力方式回應蘇聯對阿富汗的入侵，兩個超級大國繼而未有直接交戰。
其三，1970年代原是冷戰的「低盪」時期，有助減低美、蘇因阿富汗問題而爆發戰爭的機會。自1960年代末開始，美、蘇關係逐步緩和，展開了多次的互訪、裁軍會議及協商，如兩國於1972年簽訂《第一輪限制戰略武器條約》，其後又於1975年簽訂《赫爾辛基協定》，承諾互相尊重主權、和平解決糾紛等，雙方關係於1970年代得到重大改善，形成冷戰的「低盪」時期。因此，雖然蘇聯於1979年入侵阿富汗，美國也不致於以戰爭方式回應對方的行動。事後，美國只是強烈譴責蘇聯，並且拒絕確認《第二輪段限制戰略武器條約》(1979年)；又率領西方國家杯葛莫斯科奧運會，以示不滿。可見，由於1970年代美蘇關係有所改善，美國對1979年蘇聯入侵阿富汗的反應相對較溫和，使直接戰爭未有爆發。
Choose two of the following issues and examine why did they not cause a war between the US and the USSR:
(a) The Berlin Crisis (1948-49)
(b) The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
(c) The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979)
The Berlin Blockade (1948-49) was the first direct conflict between the US and the USSR after WW2. The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) brought the US and the USSR to the brink of full-scale war. The Berlin Blockade was not developed into a direct war because of their self-interests, the balance of power and impacts of WW2. The Cuban Missile Crisis was not developed into a direct war due to the fear of nuclear war and the mediation of the UN. This essay will discuss why these two crises did not trigger off a direct war between the US and the USSR.
Firstly, a direct war did not break out since the Berlin Blockade did not directly harm the interests of the US and the USSR. The US, Britain and France tried to unify their occupied zones in Germany and implement monetary reform貨幣改革, leading to the Berlin Blockade. The USSR worried that their actions would threaten the economic stability of its German occupied zone. Hence, the USSR blocked the routes of West Berlin. However, the interest of the USSR was not harmed. It could maintain its control over Eastern Germany. The US’s national defense was not threatened because of Soviet blockade as well. The Berlin Crisis did not harm the US and the USSR so they refused to settle problems through war. It showed that the Berlin Blockade had limited impacts on the US and the USSR and thus was not developed into direct war between them.
Secondly, the Berlin Blockade was not developed into a direct war because of the balance of power. After WW2, the power of the US and the USSR possessed of similar strength, shaping balance of power and confronting towards others. The US successfully invented atomic bomb原子彈(1945), which was the most destructive weapon at that time. However, the USSR possessed of 6 million soldiers, 50 thousand tanks坦克 and 20 thousand warplanes戰機, being comparable to the US. Under the balance of power, they were not confident enough to defeat the opposite side. Hence, they both took conservative attitudes and did not carry out any military action. Besides, the USSR controlled Eastern European satellite states after WW2, expanding its power. However, the USSR unified 11 countries such as Britain and France to from defensive military alliance, the NATO北約(1949). The USSR worried that war would bring about harmful impact on it, thus giving way. The USSR ended the blockade of West Berlin one month after the establishment of the NATO. Crisis came to an end. It showed that the US and the USSR did not develop the Berlin Blockade into a direct war because of the balance of power.
Thirdly, the Berlin Blockade was not developed into a direct war because of impacts of WW2. WW2 brought about catastrophic destruction. The number of deaths during WW2 was 70 million, which were unprecedented in history. As a result, countries became war-weary and did not want a war again in order to avoid casualties. The Berlin Blockade thus was not developed into a full-scale war. The US, Britain and France did not carry out any military action during the crisis forcing the USSR to unblock Berlin. On the contrary, it sent a lot of planes to provide people in West Berlin with goods and materials through “air corridors空中走廊”. Meanwhile, it adopted anti-blockade policy反封鎖政策, including cutting supplies of steel, coal and electricity to respond to the USSR. Thus, the Berlin Blockade worsened the US-USSR relations. Yet, they did not carry out force confrontation since they feared to break out war again. It showed that the US and the USSR were not willing to break out war again because of impacts of WW2. It prevented the Berlin Blockade from developing into direct war.
Because of the aforementioned reasons, the Berlin Blockade was not developed into direct war between the US and the USSR. Next, this essay will discuss why the Cuban Missile Crisis did not trigger off a war between the US and the USSR.
Firstly, the Cuban Missile Crisis was not developed into a direct war because of the fear of nuclear war. The USSR also successfully invented atomic bomb原子彈(1949) after the US. They feared that nuclear race would lead to destructive war, thus being willing to give way. For instance, in the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), the US and the USSR have mobilized armies and prepared for war already. Yet, because of the fear of nuclear war, they were willing to give way to reach reconciliation. A general war thus did not break out. After that, they even held disarmament conferences to settle nuclear weapons affairs. They signed the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty禁止核試條約(1963) in order to limit the mode of nuclear experiments, reduce nuclear armaments race and ease up hostile situation. It improved the US-USSR relations. It showed that because of the fear of nuclear war, they were willing to mediate. It prevented the Cuban Missile Crisis from developing into a general war.
Secondly, the Cuban Missile Crisis was not developed into a direct war because of the mediation of the UN. After WW2, the United Nations, which was an international peace keeping organization, was formed. It aimed at mediating conflicts among countries and preventing war from breaking out. For instance, the UN acted as a mediator in the Cuban Missile Crisis. It appealed to the US and the USSR for not adopting action which worsened the situation. It even ensured the safety of Cuba in exchange for the withdrawal of Soviet missiles, thus gaining the US and the USSR support. Later, the Secretary-General of the UN U Thant吳丹 lobbied the Cuba leader Castro卡斯特羅 for withdrawing the Soviet missiles and bombers. It was the turning point of improving the US-USSR relations. The US could get rid of the threat of Soviet missiles in Cuba while the USSR was promised not to invade Cuba by the US. They reached reconciliation under the UN mediation and did not break out war. It showed that the UN took an active role and mediated the conflict between the US and the USSR. A general war thus did not break out.
In conclusion, the Berlin Blockade and the Cuban Missile Crisis were major crises during the Cold War. Undoubtedly, these two crises worsened the US-USSR relations. However, owing to their self-interests, the balance of power, impacts of WW2, the fear of nuclear war and the mediation of the UN, a direct war did not break out and the situation of “Cold” could be maintained.
Appendix: (c) Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979)
Firstly, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan did not directly harm the interests of the US and thus it was not developed into a direct war. Since Afghanistan possessed of a huge amount of oil field resources and was near the USSR, the USSR actively intervened in its internal affairs since 1950s so as to gain interests. However, the US-Afghanistan relations were not close at all. Also, even if the USSR got the control over Afghanistan, it could not get “ice-free port不凍港” to expand its naval sphere of influence. The US could still maintain its dominant position in the oil region of Middle East. Thus, because the US did not suffer any interest loss or damage, the US refused to involve in conflict by force and only proclaimed the Carter Doctrine卡特主義, which emphasized the US would repel all foreign forces controlling the Persian Gulf波斯灣 by military force. Meanwhile, the US provided indirect assistance to anti-communist forces in Afghanistan. There was no war between the US and the USSR finally. It showed that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan did not directly harm the US interest. Thus, the US did not intervene in it comprehensively and declare war on the USSR.
Secondly, the US did not intervene in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan because of the fear of war, preventing direct war from breaking out. The Vietnam War越戰 was a painful lesson for the US. Over 58 thousand of US soldiers died in battle during the period of 1965-73 and the Vietnam War cost 100 billion. The US citizens appeared strong anti-war sentiment and doubted the policy of containing communism by force. The US government therefore avoided intervening local conflict again. Furthermore, after the US had invented the atomic bomb原子彈 in 1945, the USSR also successfully tested the atomic bomb in 1949. Until 1970s, the number of nuclear weapons of the USSR surpassed that of the US (the USSR possessed of 2,400 strategic missiles戰略導彈, which were 40% more than that of the US). With the rapid growth of nuclear weapons of the USSR, the US was suspicious of the military power of the USSR and worried for suffering destructive damage. Thus, the US did not intervene in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979). It only adopted some mild policies, including boycotting the Moscow Olympic莫斯科奧運會(1980) and providing assistance to anti-communist forces. Hence, no war broke out at that time. It showed that the US adopted non-violence method to respond to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan because of the fear of war, preventing direct war from breaking out.
Thirdly, 1970s was the period of détente低盪, reducing the chance of developing the Afghanistan problem into a war between the US and the USSR. Starting from the late 1960s, the US-USSR relations improved gradually. They held several official meetings, disarmament conferences and agreements, including the signing of the SALT I第一輪限制戰略武器條約(1972) and the Helsinki Agreement赫爾辛基協定(1975). They promised to respect each other’s sovereignty and settle disputes in a peaceful way. Their relations improved a lot in 1970s, shaping the period of détente. Thus, although the USSR invaded Afghanistan (1979), the US did not declare war on the USSR. After that, the USSR only strongly condemned the USSR, refused to verify the SALT II第二輪段限制戰略武器條約(1979) and also unified other Western countries to boycott the Moscow Olympic莫斯科奧運會, showing its discontent. It showed that since the US-USSR relations improved in 1970s, the US had a relatively mild reaction regarding the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, thus avoid the outbreak of a direct war.
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